Carga das Doenças Crônicas Não Transmissíveis nos Países de Língua Portuguesa / The burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in Portuguese Language Countries

Resumo Foram analisadas tendências da mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) entre 1990 e 2019, as projeções até 2030 e os fatores de risco atribuíveis a estas doenças na Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP). Utilizou-se estimativas do estudo Carga Global de Doenças e análise da carga de mortalidade prematura por DCNT para nove países da CPLP, utilizando taxas padronizadas por idade, usando-se RStudio. Portugal, Brasil, Guiné Equatorial, Angola e Guiné Bissau apresentam taxas de mortalidade prematura por DCNT em declínio e; Timor Leste, Cabo Verde, São Tomé e Príncipe e Moçambique apresentaram aumento das taxas. As projeções indicam que nenhum dos países deverá atingir as metas de redução em um terço da mortalidade prematura por DCNT até 2030. A carga de doença atribuível mostrou que os fatores de riscos mais importantes em 2019 foram: pressão arterial sistólica elevada, tabaco, riscos dietéticos, índice de massa corporal elevado e poluição do ar. Conclui-se pelas profundas diferenças na carga de DCNT entre os países, com melhores resultados em Portugal e Brasil e que nenhum país do CPLP deverá atingir a meta de redução das DCNT até 2030.

Abstract The present study analyzed trends in premature mortality from Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) between 1990 and 2019, the projections up to 2030, and the risk factors (RFs) attributable to these diseases in the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the analysis of the burden of premature mortality due to NCDs were used for nine CPLP countries, applying age-standardized rates, using RStudio. Portugal, Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, and Guinea Bissau showed declining premature mortality rates caused by NCDs, while East Timor, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Mozambique showed an increase in rates. Projections indicate that none of the countries is expected to achieve the goals of reducing premature mortality due to NCDs by one third by 2030. The attributable burden of disease showed that the most important RFs in 2019 were: high systolic blood pressure (SBP), tobacco, dietary risks, high body mass index (BMI), and air pollution. It can therefore be concluded that there are profound differences in the burden of NCDs among the countries, with better results in Portugal and Brazil, and that no CPLP country is likely to reach the NCD reduction target by 2030.

Mortality patterns in municipalities of a mining region before the Brumadinho dam failure, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil / Padrões de mortalidade em municípios de uma região mineradora antes do rompimento da barragem de Brumadinho, Minas Gerais, Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: To describe the patterns of overall mortality and mortality from external causes and the temporal evolution in the municipalities of the Paraopeba River Basin, before the socio-environmental disaster of the Brumadinho dam and, additionally, to investigate the correlation between mortality and socioeconomic deprivation in these municipalities. Methods: Global Burden of Disease Study mortality estimates for 26 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, were analyzed. Rates of overall mortality and mortality from external causes were estimated in the triennia (T) T1 (2000 to 2002), T2 (2009 to 2011), and T3 (2016 to 2018). Pearson's correlation coefficient measured the association between mortality rates and socioeconomic deprivation, according to the Brazilian Deprivation Index (IBP). Results: There was a decrease in overall mortality in the Paraopeba River Basin from 717.7/100 thousand to 572.6/100 thousand inhabitants, and in most municipalities between T1-T3. Mortality from external causes increased from 73.3/100 thousand to 82.1/100 thousand, and it was higher in these municipalities compared with the mean for Brazil and Minas Gerais. Deaths from suicide and interpersonal violence increased from 29.6/100 thousand to 43.2/100 thousand in most of the 26 municipalities. Death rates due to unintentional injuries decreased during the period, and those due to transport injuries, increased. There was a positive correlation between socioeconomic deprivation and the percent change in mortality rates. Conclusion: Despite the strong presence of mining activity in the region, such did not reflect in the improvement of the sanitary situation. Death rates due to external causes increased in the period, associated with inequalities, which must be considered in the planning for the recovery of the disaster areas.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever os padrões de mortalidade geral e por causas externas e a evolução temporal nos municípios da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraopeba previamente ao desastre socioambiental de Brumadinho e, adicionalmente, investigar a correlação entre a mortalidade e a privação socioeconômica nesses municípios. Métodos: Foram analisadas estimativas de mortalidade do Estudo Carga Global de Doenças referentes a 26 municípios de Minas Gerais. Calcularam-se taxas de mortalidade geral e por causas externas nos triênios (T) T1 (2000 a 2002), T2 (2009 a 2011) e T3 (2016 a 2018). O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson mediu associação entre as taxas de mortalidade e a privação socioeconômica, segundo Índice Brasileiro de Privação. Resultados: Houve declínio da mortalidade geral na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraopeba de 717,7/100.000 para 572,6/100.000 hab. e na maioria dos municípios entre T1-T3. A mortalidade por causas externas aumentou de 73,3/100.000 para 82,1/100.000 e foi mais elevada nesses municípios comparando-se com a média do Brasil e de Minas Gerais. As mortes por suicídio e violência interpessoal aumentaram de 29,6/100.000 para 43,2/100.000 na maioria dos 26 municípios. Os acidentes não intencionais reduziram-se no período, e as taxas por acidente de transporte aumentaram. Houve correlação positiva entre a privação socioeconômica e a variação percentual das taxas de mortalidade. Conclusão: Apesar da forte presença da atividade mineradora na região, isso não refletiu na melhoria do quadro sanitário, as causas externas aumentaram no período, associadas às desigualdades, o que deve ser considerado no planejamento para a recuperação das áreas do desastre.

Carga de Doenças Cardiovasculares Atribuível aos Fatores de Risco nos Países de Língua Portuguesa: Dados do Estudo "Global Burden of Disease 2019" / Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Attributable to Risk Factors in Portuguese-Speaking Countries: Data from the "Global Burden of Disease 2019" Study

Resumo Fundamento: O impacto dos fatores de risco (FR) sobre a morbimortalidade por doença cardiovascular (DCV) na maioria dos países de língua portuguesa (PLP) é pouco conhecido. Objetivo: Analisar a morbimortalidade por DCV atribuível aos FR e sua variação nos PLP de 1990 a 2019, a partir de estimativas do estudo Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Métodos: Avaliamos as mudanças nos FR ocorridas no período, as taxas de mortalidade e os anos de vida perdidos por incapacidade (DALYs), padronizados por idade, entre 1990 e 2019. Realizou-se a correlação entre a variação percentual das taxas de mortalidade e o índice sociodemográfico (SDI) de cada PLP pelo método de Spearman. O valor p<0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo. Resultados: A pressão arterial sistólica (PAS) elevada foi o principal fator de risco para mortalidade e DALY por DCV para todos os PLP. A mortalidade por DCV mostrou uma tendência de redução em 2019, maior em Portugal (-66,6%, IC95% -71,0 - -61,2) e no Brasil (-49,8%, IC95% -52,5 - -47,1). Observou-se tendência à correlação inversa entre SDI e a variação percentual da mortalidade, que foi significativa para os riscos dietéticos (r=-0,70, p=0,036), colesterol LDL elevado (r=-0,77, p=0,015) e PAS elevada (r=-0,74, p=0,023). Conclusões: Além da PAS, os FR dietéticos e metabólicos justificaram uma maior variação da carga de DCV, correlacionada com o SDI nos PLP, sugerindo a necessidade de adoção de políticas de saúde adaptadas à realidade de cada país, visando a redução de seu impacto sobre a população.

Abstract Background: The impact of risk factors (RF) on morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) for most Portuguese-speaking countries (PSC) is little known. Objectives: We aimed to analyze the morbidity and mortality from CVD attributable to RF and its variation, from 1990 to 2019, in PSC, based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Methods: We evaluated changes in cardiovascular RF, mortality rates and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2019. The correlation between percentage changes in mortality rates and the sociodemographic index (SDI) of each PSC was evaluated by the Spearman method. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the main RF for mortality and DALYs for CVD for all PSC. Mortality from CVD showed a downward trend in 2019, more accentuated in Portugal (-66.6%, 95%CI -71.0 - -61.2) and in Brazil (-49.8%, 95%CI -52.5 - -47.1). There was a trend towards an inverse correlation between SDI and the percent change in mortality, which was significant for dietary risks (r=-0.70, p=0.036), high LDL cholesterol (r=-0.77, p=0.015) and high SBP (r=-0.74, p=0.023). Conclusions: In addition to SBP, dietary and metabolic RF justified a greater variation in the burden of CVD correlated with SDI in the PSC, suggesting the need to adopt health policies adapted to the reality of each country, aiming to reduce their impact on population.

Burden of Cardiovascular diseases attributable to risk factors in Brazil: data from the "Global Burden of Disease 2019" study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: To better understand trends in the main cause of death in Brazil, we sought to analyze the burden of cardiovascular risk factors (RF) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) attributable to specific RFs in Brazil from 1990 to 2019, using the estimates from the GBD 2019 study. METHODS: To estimate RF exposure, the Summary Exposure Value (SEV) was used, whereas for disease burden attributed to RF, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) due to CVD were used. For comparisons over time and between states, we compared age-standardized rates. The sociodemographic index (SDI) was used as a marker of socioeconomic conditions. RESULTS: In 2019, 83% of CVD mortality in Brazil was attributable to RF. For SEV, there was a reduction in smoking and environmental RF, but an increase in metabolic RF. High systolic blood pressure and dietary risks continue to be the main RF for CVD mortality and DALY. While there was a decline in age-standardized mortality rates attributable to the evaluated RF, there was also a stability or increase in crude mortality rates, with the exception of smoking. It is important to highlight the increase in the risk of death attributable to a high body mass index. Regarding the analysis per state, SEVs and mortality attributable to RF were higher in those states with lower SDIs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the reduction in CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to RF, the stability or increase in crude rates attributable to metabolic RFs is worrisome, requiring investments and a renewal of health policies.

Road traffic injuries and deaths and the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990 to 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Brazil ranks 5th in the number of deaths due to road injuries. This study aimed to analyze mortality and disabilities resulting from road injuries in Brazil, and to assess the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of reducing deaths due to road injuries by 50% by 2030. METHODS: This descriptive and exploratory study used the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019: indicators of mortality, premature deaths, and disabilities according to sex, age group, and type of transport for 1990, 2015, and 2019. Time trends in mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were assessed, and a projection for 2030 was calculated, applying a linear regression model. RESULTS: Deaths due to road injuries were 44,236 in 1990, and 44,529 in 2019, representing a 43% reduction in mortality rates. The highest rates were in the North, Northeast, and Midwest regions of Brazil, in males and young adults. A 77% reduction was observed in mortality rates for pedestrians and an increase of 53% for motorcyclists and of 54% for cyclists during the period. In terms of motorcycle road injuries, the mortality rate for men increased from 7.3/100,000 (1990) to 11.7/100,000 inhabitants (2019). The rates of premature deaths and disabilities were also higher for men when compared to women. Amputations, fractures, spinal cord injuries, and head trauma were the main types of road injuries. The projections for 2030 show that Brazil might not reach the SDG target. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decline in mortality rates, the 2030 Agenda's target might not be achieved.

Suicide mortality among older adults in Brazil between 2000 and 2019 - estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Older adults present a higher risk of suicide, and Brazil is experiencing a fast population aging. To understand the impact of demographic transition, we compared Brazilian suicide mortality rates (MR) among adults (50+ years) with global rates, those from one high-income country, and those from one middle-income country. Looking for regional disparities, the MR was analyzed among older adults (60+ years) by Brazilian states. METHODS: This was an ecological study based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardized MR and age-specific MR per 100,000 inhabitants were described, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS: During the period, the annual estimates and the declining trend in mortality were higher in the world than in the studied countries. In 2019, global age-standardized MR was 9.39 (95% UI 8.48-10.29), compared to 5.68 (95% UI 5.40-6.19), 6.01 (95% UI 5.10-7.04), and 6.63 (95% UI 6.43-6.95) in Brazil, Mexico, and England, respectively. In Brazil, despite a significant decline in national rates, stability was observed in 15 states. An increase in aging was only found for men, who presented 3-4 times higher MR than women. The states' rates presented large differences: in 2019, the rates among men aged 60-64 years varied from 7.24 (95% UI 5.31; 9.85) to 26.32 (95% UI 20.21; 34.50). CONCLUSIONS: The smaller decline in suicide mortality among older Brazilian adults, the increasing risk with aging, and the higher mortality among men indicate the need for specific prevention policies. The variation within states suggests differences in the data quality or in socio-cultural and historical aspects, which requires further investigation.

Burden of disease attributable to Risk Factors in Brazil: an analysis of national and subnational estimates from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring trends in risk factors (RFs) and the burden of diseases attributable to exposure to RFs is an important measure to identify public health advances and current inadequate efforts. Objective: Analyze the global burden of disease attributable to exposure RFs in Brazil, and its changes from 1990 to 2019, according to the sex and age group. METHODS: This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The Summary Exposure Value, which represents weighted prevalence by risk, was used to estimate exposure to RFs. The mortality and DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) measurements were used to estimate the burden of diseases. For comparisons by year and between Brazilian states, age-standardized rates were used. RESULTS: Arterial hypertension was the factor responsible for most deaths in both sexes. For DALYs, the most important RF was the high body mass index (BMI) for women and alcohol consumption for men. Smoking had a substantial reduction in the attributable burden of deaths in the period. An important reduction was identified in the exposure to RFs related to socioeconomic development, such as unsafe water, lack of sanitation, and child malnutrition. Metabolic RFs, such as high BMI, hypertension, and alcohol consumption showed an increase in the attributable burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings point to an increase in metabolic RFs, which are the main RFs for mortality and DALYs. These results can help to consolidate and strengthen public policies that promote healthy lifestyles, thus reducing disease and death.

Maternal Mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract INTRODUCTION Maternal death continues to be one of the most challenging public health problems that needs to be addressed in low and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to describe the problem of maternal death in Brazil, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). METHODS This study used data from the GBD 2019 to show the numbers of deaths and the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) - number of deaths/100,000 live births - in Brazil and its 27 Federated Units (FU), for ages 10 to 54 years, from 1990 to 2019. The annual variation of the MMR was estimated in 1990, 2010, and 2019. The MMR were shown for specific causes as well as for five-year age groups. The estimates were presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS The number of maternal deaths, as well as the MMR showed a 49% reduction from 1990 to 2019. This reduction occurred heterogeneously throughout the country, and the profile of the MMR for specific causes changed between 1990 and 2019: from hypertensive gestation diseases, to indirect maternal deaths, followed by hypertensive gestation diseases. In the extreme age groups, the MMR is higher, with mortality increasing exponentially in direct proportion with age. CONCLUSIONS Maternal deaths in Brazil have decreased substantially since 1990; however, the numbers still fall short of what was established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Indirect causes are the greatest problem in more than 60% of the FU, especially for hypertensive pregnancy diseases.

Mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens brasileiros entre 1990 e 2019: uma análise do estudo Carga Global de Doença / Mortality among Brazilian adolescents and young adults between 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Resumo Trata-se de análise de indicadores de mortalidade de brasileiros com idades entre 10 e 24 anos. Foram analisados os dados do Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, utilizando números absolutos, proporção de óbitos e taxas de mortalidade específicas entre 1990 e 2019, segundo faixa etária (10 a 14, 15 a 19 e 20 a 24 anos), sexo e causas de morte para Brasil, regiões e estados brasileiros. Houve redução de 11,8% nas taxas de mortalidade de indivíduos com idades entre 10 e 24 anos no período investigado. Em 2019, ocorreram 13.459 mortes entre mulheres, correspondendo à redução de 30,8% no período. Entre homens ocorreram 39.362 óbitos, redução de apenas 6,2%. Houve aumento das taxas de mortalidade no Norte e Nordeste e redução em estados do Sudeste e Sul. Em 2019, entre mulheres a primeira causa de morte foram lesões por transporte, seguidas por violência interpessoal, mortes maternas e suicídio. Para os homens, a violência interpessoal foi a primeira causa de morte, em especial no Nordeste, seguida das lesões por transporte, do suicídio e dos afogamentos. Execuções policiais passaram do 77º para o 6º lugar. Este estudo revelou desigualdades na mortalidade de adolescentes e adultos jovens segundo sexo, causas de óbito, regiões e estados brasileiros.

Abstract Mortality indicators for Brazilians aged between 10 and 24 years old were analyzed. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, and absolute numbers, proportion of deaths and specific mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, according to age group (10 to 14, 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 years), sex and causes of death for Brazil, regions and Brazilian states. There was a reduction of 11.8% in the mortality rates of individuals aged between 10 and 24 years in the investigated period. In 2019, there were 13,459 deaths among women, corresponding to a reduction of 30.8% in the period. Among men there were 39,362 deaths, a reduction of only 6.2%. There was an increase in mortality rates in the North and Northeast and a reduction in the Southeast and South states. In 2019, the leading cause of death among women was traffic injuries, followed by interpersonal violence, maternal deaths and suicide. For men, interpersonal violence was the leading cause of death, especially in the Northeast, followed by traffic injuries, suicide and drowning. Police executions moved from 77th to 6th place. This study revealed inequalities in the mortality of adolescents and young adults according to sex, causes of death, regions and Brazilian states.